觀察簡介
? 據昨天（2020年11月10日）發布的消息，Dodge 數據 &分析 2021建筑展望預測明年美國新開工建筑總量將增加4%，達到7710億美元
? 受新冠肺炎疫情影響，今年前六個月美國新開工建筑項目銳減，而復蘇之路“受潛在問題影響，將漫長而艱難”，Dodge總經濟師Richard Branch 在新聞發布會上說，到目前為止，今年新開工建筑項目據估計減少了14%，總量僅為7380億美元。
? Dodge還預測，非住宅類建筑的市場價值將升高3%，非樓宇類建筑的市場價值將升高7%。
深度觀察：
“秋冬季節新一輪新冠肺炎疫情及延遲的財政刺激所帶來的不確定性將延緩2021年的經濟復蘇”Branch 在新聞發布會上說“若2021年初能有進一步的財政刺激，并且新冠疫苗能獲得批準并廣泛使用，那明年商業和消費者信心都將有所提升，但建筑市場由于受疫情影響太嚴重，還需要相當長的時間才能完全復蘇。”
Dodge關于2021年建筑業的預測還包括：
? 多戶型住宅建筑數量將減少1%，新開工數目減少2%至484000。
? 新開工商業建筑的市場價值將升高5%，隨著電商公司繼續加強物流等基礎設施建設，倉庫和數據中心類建筑項目將有所增加。
? 零售業和酒店業務將持續不景氣。
? 州政府和各地方政府財政赤字增加，將對公共建筑產生影響，政府建筑項目新開工數目將增加1%。教育類建筑項目將繼續減少，而健康醫療類項目將增加。
? 受聯邦政府對州政府及地方政府財政支持力度的不確定性的影響，2021年新開工的公共設施項目將略有增加，但增加幅度不大。
? 隨著幾個大型的液化天然氣出口設施的開工和風力發電廠項目數量的增加，電力設施和燃氣設施項目將增加35%。
? 制造業廠房類項目市場價值將繼續走勢平平。
Dodge: U.S. construction starts will increase 4% next year
Dive Brief:
? Released yesterday, the Dodge Data & Analytics 2021 Construction Outlook predicts that total U.S. construction starts will increase by 4% next year, to $771 billion.
? The COVID-19 pandemic led to a deep drop in construction starts in the first six months of 2020, and the road to recovery “will be long and fraught with potential potholes” Richard Branch, Dodge chief economist, said in a press release. In 2020 so far, construction starts have slipped an estimated 14% to $738 billion.
? Dodge also predicted the dollar value of nonresidential buildings will be up 3%, while nonbuilding construction will improve by 7%.
Dive Insight:
“Uncertainty surrounding the next wave of COVID-19 infections in the fall and winter and delayed fiscal stimulus will lead to a slow and jagged recovery in 2021,” Branch said in the release. “Business and consumer confidence will improve over the year as further stimulus comes in early 2021 and a vaccine is approved and becomes more widely distributed, but construction markets have been deeply scarred and will take considerable time to fully recover.”
Other predictions from Dodge for construction in 2021 include:
? Multifamily construction will drop 1% while the number of units started will fall 2% to 484,000.
? The dollar value of commercial building starts will increase 5%. Warehouse and data center construction will be strong as e-commerce companies continue to build out their logistics infrastructure.
? Retail and hotel activity will languish.
? In 2021, institutional construction starts will increase by 1% as growing state and local budget deficits impact public building construction. Education construction is expected to see further declines, while healthcare starts are predicted to rise.
? Public works construction starts will see little improvement as 2021 begins due to continued uncertainty surrounding additional federal aid for state and local areas.
? Electric utilities/gas plants will gain 35%, led by expected groundbreakings for several large LNG export facilities and an increasing number of wind farms.
? The dollar value of manufacturing plant construction will remain flat.
