核心摘要
建(jian)(jian)筑業(ye)包括(kuo)了(le)房地(di)產(chan)、基礎(chu)設施和工(gong)業(ye)工(gong)程(cheng)，是全球經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)中最(zui)大的產(chan)業(ye)，占全球GDP的13%。仔細(xi)觀察其表現，可以看出建(jian)(jian)筑行業(ye)在經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)景氣(qi)時期面臨著壓力，在危機時期則(ze)更甚(shen)。我們預(yu)計九種(zhong)變革將(jiang)從根(gen)本上(shang)改變建(jian)(jian)造方式(shi)。能夠調整商業(ye)模式(shi)的公司(si)將(jiang)受(shou)益匪淺(qian)，而其他(ta)公司(si)則(ze)可能難以生存。
從歷史上看，建筑業表現不佳
從令人驚嘆的城市景觀和大規模的基礎設施到持續的創新，建筑業的一系列成就令人印象深刻。然而，在過去的幾十年里，建筑行業飽受糟糕表現的困擾。
過去20年間，建筑業年均增長值僅為整體經濟平均增長值的1/3，厭惡風險、行業碎片化及難以吸引到數字人才都減緩了行業創新。建筑業的數字化程度基本是所有行業中最低的，即使考慮到建筑行業存在很高的經營風險、甚至倒閉風險，工期和造價超支也是常態，那5%左右的息稅前利潤（EBIT）也還是太低了。
建筑行業，乃至大的建筑生態體系---包括建筑公司、零部件和基礎材料供應商、開發商、業主、分包商，機械和軟件供應商等，都強烈感受到了新冠疫情的沖擊。在本報告撰寫時，經濟的不確定性籠罩全球，而建筑業的波動往往比經濟整體的波動大得多。麥肯錫調研顯示，若一切順利，到2021年初，建筑業將恢復到疫情危機前的水平，但若停工時間延長，到2024年甚至更長時間之后，建筑業才能恢復過來。以往的危機對行業發展趨勢均有加速作用，此次的疫情危機也會引發持久變化，改變現有作業方式，比如在線作業、遠程作業等。
建筑業的落后表現是建筑市場的基本規則和特點以及行業對此相應做出反應的直接結果。周期性的需求降低了資本投入，定制化的需求限制了標準化。建筑項目非常復雜，并且會越來越復雜，物流需要處理重物和不同的部件；體力勞動的比例很高，并且在某些市場中嚴重缺乏熟練工人；項目復雜度較低的細分領域進入門檻低，非正式勞動力的比例高，這使得規模較小且效率低下的公司可以參與競爭；建筑行業受到嚴格的監管，從施工許可、安全認證和工地管理等所有事情，都受到嚴格管制，招標中的最低價規則使基于質量、可靠性或可替代設計的競爭更加復雜。
針對這(zhe)種市(shi)場(chang)屬性，現在(zai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)建筑(zhu)業需要解決很(hen)多阻礙生產力發展和(he)行業變革的(de)(de)(de)(de)難題。處(chu)于不(bu)(bu)(bu)同(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)地質環境、具有(you)(you)獨特(te)性的(de)(de)(de)(de)定(ding)制項目(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)重復(fu)性和(he)標準化(hua)程度有(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)。本地市(shi)場(chang)結(jie)構(gou)和(he)進(jin)入(ru)市(shi)場(chang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)低門檻造成了碎片化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)市(shi)場(chang)結(jie)構(gou)（縱向(xiang)和(he)橫向(xiang)），大(da)部分(fen)是(shi)經濟規模有(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)小公司。項目(mu)步(bu)驟繁多、責任分(fen)散(san)化(hua)使得(de)(de)協調(diao)變得(de)(de)更加(jia)復(fu)雜，承包模式(shi)和(he)激勵機制錯位；風險通常會在(zai)價值鏈內轉移，而不(bu)(bu)(bu)是(shi)消除，參與者從索賠中獲利而不(bu)(bu)(bu)是(shi)直接受益(yi)于優質的(de)(de)(de)(de)交付；強周期性和(he)高(gao)不(bu)(bu)(bu)可(ke)預測性導(dao)致建筑(zhu)公司更多的(de)(de)(de)(de)是(shi)依靠臨時(shi)工和(he)分(fen)包商完成項目(mu)，這(zhe)阻礙了生產力提升(sheng)和(he)經濟規模擴大(da)，降低了產品質量和(he)客戶滿意度。
變化的市場環境，技術進步和具有顛覆性的新進入者將觸發行業變革
新(xin)冠疫(yi)情開始之前，建筑業(ye)(ye)已經(jing)開始經(jing)歷一場前所未(wei)有的(de)(de)快速顛覆。接下來(lai)幾年，建筑市場屬性(xing)(xing)將發生幾大根本性(xing)(xing)變化(hua)，比如技術工人的(de)(de)匱(kui)乏、基礎設施項(xiang)目和(he)經(jing)濟性(xing)(xing)住房項(xiang)目的(de)(de)持(chi)續(xu)成本壓力、對(dui)施工現場可持(chi)續(xu)性(xing)(xing)和(he)安全性(xing)(xing)更(geng)嚴(yan)格的(de)(de)規定(ding)，客(ke)戶(hu)和(he)業(ye)(ye)主(zhu)的(de)(de)越來(lai)越復雜(za)的(de)(de)高要求。新(xin)出現的(de)(de)顛覆，包括工業(ye)(ye)化(hua)和(he)新(xin)材料，產品和(he)過程(cheng)的(de)(de)數(shu)字化(hua)以及新(xin)加(jia)入者，這(zhe)些將塑造建筑行業(ye)(ye)未(wei)來(lai)的(de)(de)發展動(dong)態(圖表A)
（圖表A）
顛覆源
來自越來越復雜的客戶和全生命周期成本（TCO）的壓力。客戶和業主越來越復雜，不斷有更專業的資金涌入建筑行業。例如，從2014年到2019年，私募股權公司籌集了超過3880億美元用于基礎設施項目，其中僅在2019年就籌集了1000億美元，比2018年增長了24％。客戶在性能、全生命周期成本和可持續性方面的需求也在不斷發展：建筑物能源和運營效率以及建筑結構的靈活性和適應性將成為首選因素。客戶希望獲得簡單的數字交互以及可適應性更強的建筑結構，并且這一期望越來越高。
由于公共預算緊張和住房負擔能力問題，建筑行業面臨持續的成本壓力。麥肯錫分析發現，到2035年，全球基礎設施投資將需要69.4萬億美元，以支持預期的GDP增長，而且全球三分之一的城市家庭無法負擔得起市價房屋。新冠肺炎疫情的經濟影響加劇了該問題——成本和負擔能力問題。
熟練勞動力的持續短缺和不斷變化的物流方式。技術工人短缺已成為多個市場的主要問題，退休將耗盡人才。例如，預計到2031年美國現有建筑工人中將有約41％退休。在撰寫本文時，新冠肺炎疫情對這種進程的影響還不確定。
安全和可持續性法規以及建筑規范的標準化。對可持續性和工地安全性的要求不斷提高。在新冠肺炎疫情發生之后，需要新的健康和安全流程；關于氣候變化的全球討論加劇了行業減少碳排放的壓力。
同時，在某些市場中，政府認識到需要對建筑規范進行標準化，或提供工廠建造產品的類型證書和認證，而非對每個場所逐一審查，但這一過程仍然緩慢。
工業化。模塊化，非現場生產和現場組裝自動化將實現工業化和基于產品的非現場生產方式。隨著新冠肺炎疫情的進一步發展，向更加可控環境的轉型將愈加重要。向高效非現場建造過渡的下一步涉及集成自動化生產系統，從本質上使建筑更像汽車制造。
新材料。水泥等傳統基礎材料的創新可以減少碳排放。新興的輕質材料，例如輕鋼框架和交叉層壓木材，可以帶來更簡單的工廠模塊生產。他們還將改變物流模式，實現更遠距離的物料運輸和更大程度的集中化。
產品和過程的數字化。數字技術可以實現更好的協作、對價值鏈的更好控制以及更基于數據決策的轉變。這些創新將改變公司運營、設計和建造方式以及與合作伙伴互動的方式。集成了物聯網（IoT）的智能建筑和基礎設施將提高數據可用性，并實現更高效的運營以及新的業務模型，例如基于績效的承包和協作簽約。公司可以使用建筑信息模型（BIM）創建完整的三維模型，并增加進度和成本等其他層次數據，在項目的早期就把設計階段與價值鏈的其余部分集成起來，而不是在施工的同時完成設計，從而提高效率。這將從根本上改變建筑項目中的風險和決策順序，并使傳統的EPC模式被顛覆。自動化的參數設計和族庫將改變工程設計環節。使用數字工具可以顯著改善現場協作，而且數字渠道正在擴展到建造環節中，具有改變整個價值鏈中買賣商品交互方式的潛力。與其他行業一樣，新冠肺炎疫情正在加速數字工具的集成。
新(xin)進入者(zhe)。初(chu)創企業、老牌玩(wan)家增(zeng)加投資(zi)(zi)以及來自風(feng)險資(zi)(zi)本和(he)私募股(gu)權的(de)新(xin)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)正(zheng)在加速顛覆當(dang)前的(de)商業模式。隨著新(xin)冠肺炎疫情引發的(de)經濟危機的(de)發展，我們預計公司重組和(he)并購(gou)活(huo)動(dong)將會增(zeng)加。
期望九種變革能從根本上改變建筑行業
根據我們的調查，超過75％的受訪者認為這些變革很可能會發生，而超過60％的受訪者認為這些變革可能會在未來5年內發生。新冠肺炎疫情帶來的經濟影響似乎將加速它們的發展。
基于產品的方式。將來，越來越多的建筑結構和配套服務將作為標準化的“產品”來交付和銷售，包括開發人員推廣品牌產品，可以從一個產品世代升級到另一個產品世代的具有標準化但可定制設計的建筑，以及使用非現場生產的模塊化元素和標準化組件進行交付。這些模塊和組件將運送到現場進行組裝。在安全、非敵對的環境中，生產將會類似于裝配生產線的過程，并具有高度的可重復性。
專業化。為了提高利潤率和差異化水平，公司將開始專注于細分市場（例如豪華單戶住宅、多層住宅、醫院或加工廠），從而在這些領域和市場中形成競爭優勢。公司將專門研究使用不同的材料、部件或建造方法。向專業化的轉變還將對公司開發能力及知識和能力的累積提出要求，以保持其競爭優勢。顯然，參與者將需要仔細權衡效果、效率和品牌定位——更大范圍的專業化可以應對潛在風險，更多元的組合帶來周期性優勢。
價值鏈控制以及與核心供應鏈的集成。公司將轉型擁有或者控制價值鏈上的重要活動，例如工程設計、部分組件制造、供應鏈管理和現場組裝。公司將能夠通過縱向整合或戰略聯盟與合作伙伴關系來實現這一目標，具體方法是使用協作合同和更一致的激勵措施。數字技術將改變交互模型：利用BIM模型技術可以盡早做出更多決策，分銷將轉向在線平臺和高級物流管理，而端到端軟件平臺將使公司能夠更好地控制和整合價值聯和供應鏈。價值鏈控制或集成將減少界面摩擦，并使創新更加靈活。
合并。對專業化和創新---包括使用新材料、數字化、技術和設施以及人力資源---的投資規模需要比目前更大。基于產品的方法、更高的標準化和可重復性，都進一步增加了擴大規模的重要性，建筑行業在價值鏈的特定環節以及整個鏈條上可能會有越來越多的并購。
以客戶為中心和品牌化。通過產品化---即將開發、設計或建造服務轉變為易于投放市場的產品或解決方案---具備專業性又代表公司的獨特屬性和價值的品牌將變得更加重要。與傳統的消費行業一樣，強大的品牌可以使客戶與建筑公司或供應商的產品更緊密地聯系在一起，并有助于建立和保持關系并吸引新客戶。與其他制造業中的品牌相似，此類建筑品牌將包括產品和服務質量、價值、交貨時間、可靠性、服務產品和保修等方面。
技術和設備投資。產品化意味著需要建立異地工廠，這需要對廠房、制造機械和設備（例如用于自動化制造的機器人）和技術進行投資。在不使用模塊化的情況下，使用先進的自動化設備和無人機以及其他技術，建筑工地也可能會變得更加資本密集。對專業化或產品化程度高的公司而言，研發投資將變得越來越重要，因此公司可能會增加用于開發創新產品和技術的投入。
人力資源投資。創新、數字化、價值鏈控制、技術使用以及終端應用細分領域的專業化都增加了研發和內部專業化的重要性，這將促使企業在人力資源上進行更多投資。風險管理和其他當前功能的重要性將降低，其他功能的重要性將提升（如供應鏈管理）。為了構建必要的能力，公司將需要進一步加大對員工隊伍的投資，考慮到下一步的轉變，這種投資顯得愈發重要。大多數老公司都在努力吸引他們所需的數字人才，并且為未來商業模式轉變注入新鮮血液。
國際化。更高的標準化將降低跨地域運營的障礙。隨著擴大規模對于占據競爭優勢越來越重要，參與者將增加其全球足跡，既包括基礎設施等高價值、小批量項目，也包括有全球需求的、可復制的產品。但新冠肺炎疫情可能會減緩這種發展。
可持續性。盡管可持續性已經是一個重要的決策因素，但我們現在剛處于日新月異的快速發展的起始階段。除了減少碳排放的討論之外，自然氣候風險已越來越嚴重，需要引起重視。公司在采購材料時需要考慮對環境的影響，制造業將會更加可持續（例如，使用電機）并使供應鏈在可持續性和彈性方面得到優化。此外，需要改變工作環境中的不利因素，從而使施工更安全，耗水量、灰塵、噪音和垃圾也是關鍵因素。
如今，基于項目的建造過程似乎將從根本上轉向基于產品的方法建造過程。公司不會在現場建造獨特設計的結構，而會在非現場制造廠房里進行生產。標準化的子元件和構件很可能會在內部像研發一樣設計。這些構件將單獨制造，然后與其它定制構件進行組合以滿足定制要求。為了通過重復有效地進行生產并學習，開發人員、制造商和承包商將需要專注于細分終端用戶。數據驅動的商業模式終將出現。總體而言，這一過程可能類似于造船或汽車制造等行業。
我們有理由相信，以贏家為主導的格局將會出現，而無法迅速調整的公司就有可能承受市場份額和利潤率下降的風險，直到最終倒閉。
建筑業不是第一個在整個價值鏈上遭遇落后生產力和被破壞顛覆的行業。可以從其他行業身上汲取教訓，這些行業具有相似的特征并曾遇到建筑業現在面臨的挑戰。我們分析了其中4個行業的轉變：造船業、商用飛機制造業、農業和汽車制造業。所有這些轉變模式都清晰可見，并且價值轉移到了那些能夠最好地應對變化的人。生產技術的創新和新的工作方法啟動了新進程。如今，在各個行業中，贏家都繼續在技術上進行大量投資，其中很多都專注于數字化以及數據驅動的產品和服務。
例(li)如，以前(qian)的(de)(de)(de)商(shang)(shang)用飛機(ji)制造(zao)(zao)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)格(ge)局高(gao)度分散。每架飛機(ji)都(dou)是(shi)根據定制要求(qiu)和基于項目的(de)(de)(de)制造(zao)(zao)設置從頭開(kai)始建(jian)造(zao)(zao)。工業(ye)(ye)化(hua)引發了向裝(zhuang)配式制造(zao)(zao)的(de)(de)(de)轉變變革，裝(zhuang)配式制造(zao)(zao)之后(hou)會變得高(gao)度自動化(hua)。由于隨(sui)后(hou)的(de)(de)(de)標準化(hua)，商(shang)(shang)用飛機(ji)制造(zao)(zao)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)進入了整(zheng)合階段(duan)，導(dao)致了兩個主要參與(yu)者的(de)(de)(de)崛起：空客(ke)和波音。轉型導(dao)致了產業(ye)(ye)鏈價值(zhi)向客(ke)戶的(de)(de)(de)明顯重(zhong)大轉移。由于商(shang)(shang)用飛機(ji)制造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)當時面臨(lin)著與(yu)現(xian)在建(jian)筑業(ye)(ye)所面臨(lin)的(de)(de)(de)相似的(de)(de)(de)阻礙(ai)，轉型過程大約(yue)花(hua)費了30年的(de)(de)(de)時間。
（圖表B）
現有價值中將近一半處于危急關頭
隨(sui)著(zhu)價(jia)(jia)值(zhi)和(he)利潤(run)池在(zai)未來(lai)(lai)15年內發(fa)生變化，行業(ye)轉型將創(chuang)造巨大的(de)(de)機(ji)遇和(he)巨大的(de)(de)風險。過(guo)去(qu)幾年，在(zai)建(jian)筑價(jia)(jia)值(zhi)鏈(lian)和(he)所有(you)(you)資產(chan)類別中，大約(yue)有(you)(you)11萬(wan)億(yi)美元(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)增加值(zhi)和(he)1.5萬(wan)億(yi)美元(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)利潤(run)分(fen)(fen)配不均(jun)。展望未來(lai)(lai)，那些(xie)受(shou)轉變影響最大的(de)(de)細分(fen)(fen)市(shi)場，比如酒店建(jian)設，高(gao)(gao)達(da)45％的(de)(de)現(xian)有(you)(you)價(jia)(jia)值(zhi)可能會受(shou)到威脅。在(zai)這45%中，有(you)(you)約(yue)20％至30％的(de)(de)現(xian)有(you)(you)價(jia)(jia)值(zhi)將保(bao)留并重新分(fen)(fen)配到產(chan)業(ye)鏈(lian)生態系(xi)統中，推動轉型。剩余的(de)(de)15%到20%將供參(can)與者(zhe)競(jing)爭，因(yin)為(wei)這些(xie)轉型可以(yi)節省成本并提高(gao)(gao)生產(chan)率，并為(wei)參(can)與者(zhe)或客戶帶來(lai)(lai)好處（降低價(jia)(jia)格或提高(gao)(gao)質量）。如果生態系(xi)統中的(de)(de)參(can)與者(zhe)完(wan)全抓住了這一(yi)部(bu)分(fen)(fen)價(jia)(jia)值(zhi)，他的(de)(de)總利潤(run)率可能會從目(mu)前的(de)(de)5％增長近一(yi)倍(bei)，達(da)到10％。快速行動并設法從根本上(shang)超越(yue)競(jing)爭對(dui)手(shou)的(de)(de)參(can)與者(zhe)可以(yi)搶占(zhan)這一(yi)新的(de)(de)2650億(yi)美元(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)利潤(run)池中的(de)(de)最大份額（轉移到新生態系(xi)統中的(de)(de)15%-20%的(de)(de)價(jia)(jia)值(zhi)）。
（圖表C）
有些公司受影響更大。軟件供應商預計將顯著增加其增加值貢獻率，盡管是從占價值鏈1%到2%的小基數基礎增加。此外，預計會有很大一部分價值從建筑工地轉移到非現場預制工廠。相比之下，除非總承包商和專業分包商重新自我定位，將自己發展為執行能力卓越的公司，否則可能會面臨很大的利潤下滑。基本的工程設計及材料分銷和物流可能會面臨大量商品化和自動化風險。
存在風險的這部分價值可以使生態系統中的參與者受益，利潤增加，工人工資更高，也可以使顧客受益，產品價格更低、質量更高。快速行動并設法降低成本并提高生產率的公司將比競爭對手具有優勢。這些先行者可以將生產力的提高轉化為利潤。從長遠來看，隨著其他參與者的調整和競爭的加劇，根據其他行業的經驗看，大部分收益將轉移給客戶。
基于(yu)情景分析，到(dao)2035年，10％到(dao)12％的(de)(de)(de)(de)建(jian)筑(zhu)活動將按(an)照本報(bao)告中描述(shu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)變(bian)化(hua)進行轉(zhuan)(zhuan)移，但是由于(yu)起點(dian)和轉(zhuan)(zhuan)換(huan)能(neng)力的(de)(de)(de)(de)不同(tong)(tong)，不同(tong)(tong)資產(chan)類(lei)別的(de)(de)(de)(de)變(bian)化(hua)速度將會有很大差異。例如(ru)，在房地產(chan)領域(yu)，我們預計到(dao)2035年，通(tong)過(guo)(guo)(guo)新(xin)價值鏈完成的(de)(de)(de)(de)新(xin)建(jian)筑(zhu)項(xiang)目比例將增加15%。這數值高于(yu)平均(jun)水平，部分是因為單戶和多戶住(zhu)宅、酒店、辦公室和醫院的(de)(de)(de)(de)標準(zhun)化(hua)潛(qian)力所(suo)致。對(dui)于(yu)基礎設(she)施，通(tong)過(guo)(guo)(guo)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)變(bian)后的(de)(de)(de)(de)方(fang)式交付的(de)(de)(de)(de)新(xin)建(jian)筑(zhu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)比例約增長7%，特別是對(dui)潛(qian)力較大的(de)(de)(de)(de)領域(yu)，比如(ru)橋梁、機場和鐵路。在工業建(jian)筑(zhu)領域(yu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)滲(shen)透率可(ke)能(neng)會提高約5％，因為它的(de)(de)(de)(de)幾個細分領域(yu)過(guo)(guo)(guo)去已經取得了重(zhong)大進展。
轉型需要時間，新冠肺炎疫情將加速變革
建筑業的全面轉型可能需要數十年的時間，但是這一過程已經開始。我們的調查顯示，行業領導者在很大程度上認可這一點，本報告中概述的變化可能在未來5到10年內大規模發生，并且新冠肺炎疫情將加速這一變化。
我們在2019年11、12月對400位決策者進行的高管調查發現，從3、5年之前，高管的態度就發出了實質性的變化。有90％的受訪者堅信行業需要改變，而且這種斷言在過去10年中有所增長。80％的人相信自此之后的20年，建筑行業的面貌將大為改觀。
除了我們的分析和受訪高管的一致信念之外，我們今天看到的跡象表明，在新冠肺炎疫情暴發之前，整個行業已經開始發生變化。例如，越來越多地采用基于產品的建造方法。在北美洲，2015至2018年間，新建房地產建筑項目中永久性模塊化建筑的市場份額增長了約51%，同期該市場的收入（從20億美元的小基數）增長了2.4倍。此外，新參與者和老玩家已經在探索控制價值鏈的更大部分；例如，Katerra利用新技術控制價值鏈，包括設計、施工和非現場制造。有指標顯示，建筑業越來越重視研發，重視技術和設施投資的建筑公司越來越吃香。從2013年到2017年，全球前2500家建筑公司的研發支出增長了77%。
新(xin)冠肺炎疫(yi)情似乎(hu)將加(jia)速變(bian)革(ge)（圖表D）。我們在(zai)(zai)2020年5月初進(jin)行(xing)了另一項調查，以了解危機(ji)對報告中論述的顛覆和(he)變(bian)革(ge)的潛在(zai)(zai)影響。有(you)100名參與了第一次(ci)調查的決策者(zhe)同樣參與了這次(ci)的調查。近三分(fen)之二的受(shou)(shou)訪者(zhe)認為，新(xin)冠肺炎疫(yi)情將加(jia)速行(xing)業轉型，半(ban)數受(shou)(shou)訪者(zhe)已經根據形勢變(bian)化(hua)追加(jia)了投資(zi)。在(zai)(zai)數字化(hua)和(he)供應鏈(lian)控制方面的投資(zi)最為明顯，而受(shou)(shou)訪者(zhe)認為，這場(chang)危機(ji)將減緩國際化(hua)進(jin)程，限制新(xin)進(jin)入者(zhe)，為老玩家們提供一個難得(de)的趕上(shang)潮流和(he)推動(dong)變(bian)革(ge)的機(ji)會。
（圖表D）
所有從業者現在都必須為完全不同的新業態做好準備
我們的研究表明，面臨危機，那些不只滿足于努力生存，而是采取快速大膽的戰略行動的公司往往會成為贏家。從過去的經濟運行來看，這些公司在收入和EBITDA方面都優于競爭對手：生產力（比如通過運營效率降低生產成本）得到快速提升，在經濟復蘇中更早獲得生機并更多地獲利，在經濟下行之前清理了資產負債。
面對這種轉變，價值鏈上所有的公司都需要重新審視自己的定位：這個生態系統中的參與者需要制定策略應對將要面臨的顛覆。我們的調查反饋表顯示，有4類企業將面臨最大最長時間的下滑：設計公司，材料分銷商、總承包商和專業分包商。此外，受訪者認為，總承包商最應當首當其沖盡早行動，因為他們可能會經歷商品化和價值份額下降。
面對這種轉變，價值鏈上的所有公司都需要重新審視自己的定位：資產類別、細分行業、區域和價值鏈位置。他們將需要評估每一個顛覆和九種轉型對他們的影響，決定他們應該如何應對，并根據這些決定重新定義新的業務模型和運營模式。無論他們的目標是捍衛核心業務并適應新環境，還是從根本上改造自己并發起攻擊，這個過程都是至關重要的。為了獲得成功，公司需要投資建立一套良好的機制，例如能對變革做出快速反應和調整的組織。最后，公司可以選擇如何實施新的戰略和轉型，可以是內部改變，建立新的部門，也可以是獨立運營，或者實施目標并購。
例如，在材料分銷和物流部門，非現場制造車間將把發貨需求轉移到主要物流節點，即工廠樞紐，這將提高客戶對及時交貨的期望。在線和直銷渠道（包括來自在線分銷巨頭的新競爭）、客戶期望的提高以及先進分析或自動化倉庫等技術的使用增加，將進一步重塑這一細分市場。采購活動從小型專業貿易公司轉向大型承包商，將影響公司的議價能力，而國際化將使公司能夠從低成本國家獲得更多供應資源。
企業可以相應嘗試捍衛自己的核心競爭力，例如，專注于翻新市場，變得更精簡，并進行品類審核。面對這種轉變，通過加強客戶關系、提供新的業務解決方案以避免脫媒、獲得規模效應以及發展核心供應鏈能力等方式，他們可以適應轉型，整個價值鏈上的公司都需要重新審視他們想在哪里發揮作用，將會引起未來建筑物流中心的重塑。戰略可以包括與非現場制造商以及與材料供應商密切合作，根據他們的需求優化物流和庫存，進行國際采購，或提供信貸融資。
熟悉下一個新常態并迅速采取行動的公司將處于創造價值和保持競爭優勢的最佳位置。
與建筑生態系統相鄰的組織應努力為即將發生的變化提供便利，并從變化中受益。投資者最好發揮遠見預測不同的變化，并產生高于市場的回報。保險公司已經在將現代建筑方法細化融入到他們的條款中。政策制定者應幫助建筑行業提高生產力，從而提供更好的住房和基礎設施。而且，如果建筑業主在實現轉變過程中發揮作用，他們將以更低的成本從獲得更好的建筑。
建筑業已(yi)經處于完(wan)美風暴之(zhi)中。工業化、全球(qiu)化和(he)數字(zi)化是(shi)(shi)所(suo)有行(xing)業變(bian)革的關鍵(jian)驅動(dong)力。盡管這(zhe)種變(bian)化是(shi)(shi)連(lian)續的，例如，在(zai)20世紀(ji)70年(nian)代和(he)80年(nian)代的自(zi)動(dong)工業化、90年(nian)代和(he)21世紀(ji)的全球(qiu)化以(yi)及(ji)2010年(nian)以(yi)后(hou)的數字(zi)化，所(suo)有這(zhe)些驅動(dong)因素都(dou)在(zai)同時沖擊著建筑業。這(zhe)是(shi)(shi)一項艱巨的任務，需(xu)要采取大(da)膽而靈活(huo)的行(xing)動(dong)進(jin)行(xing)應對，但回報也將是(shi)(shi)豐厚的。（本文摘自(zi)：McKinsey &Company官方網(wang)站及(ji)中國勘察設計雜志(zhi)）
June 2020
Executive summary
Construction, which encompasses real estate, infrastructure, and industrial structures, is the largest industry in the global economy, accounting for 13 percent of the world’s GDP. A closer look at its underlying performance highlights the industry’s challenges in good economic times, let alone in times of crisis. We expect a set of nine shifts to radically change the way construction is done. Companies that can adjust their business models stand to benefit handsomely, while others may struggle to survive.
Historically, the construction industry has underperformed
Construction is responsible for a wide range of impressive accomplishments, from stunning cityscapes and foundational infrastructure on a massive scale to sustained innovation. However, in the past couple of decades, it also has been plagued by dismal performance.
Annual productivity growth over the past 20 years was only a third of total economy averages. Risk aversion and fragmentation as well as difficulties in attracting digital talent slow down innovation. Digitalization is lower than in nearly any other industry. Profitability is low, at around 5 percent EBIT margin, despite high risks and many insolvencies. Customer satisfaction is hampered by regular time and budget overruns and lengthy claims procedures.
The industry will feel the economic impact of the COVID-19 strongly, as will the wider construction ecosystem—which includes construction companies，component and basic-materials suppliers, developers and owners, distributors, and machinery and software providers. At the time of writing, high levels of economic uncertainty prevail worldwide, and the construction industry tends to be significantly more volatile than the overall economy. MGI scenarios suggest that if things go well, construction activity could be back to pre-crisis levels by early 2021. But longer-term lockdowns could mean that it takes until 2024 or even later. In the past, crises have had an accelerative effect on trends, and this crisis is also expected to trigger lasting change impacting use of the built environment, like online channel usage or remote-working practices.
The lagging performance of the construction industry is a direct result of the fundamental rules and characteristics of the construction market and the industry dynamics that occur in response to them. Cyclical demand leads to low capital investment, and bespoke requirements limit standardization. Construction projects are complex, and increasingly so, and logistics need to deal with heavy weight and many different parts. The share of manual labor is high, and the industry has a significant shortage of skilled workers in several markets. Low barriers to entry in segments with lower project complexity and a significant share of informal labor allow small and unproductive companies to compete. The construction industry is extensively regulated, subject to everything from permits and approvals to safety and work-site controls, and lowest-price rules in tenders make competition based on quality, reliability, or alternative design offerings more complicated.
In response to these market characteristics, today’s construction industry must grapple with several dynamics that impede productivity and make change more difficult. Bespoke projects with unique features and varying topology have a limited degree of repeatability and standardization. Local market structures and ease of entry have resulted in a fragmented landscape (both vertically and horizontally) of mostly small companies with limited economies of scale. Moreover, every project involves many steps and companies in every project with scattered accountability, which complicates the coordination. Contractual structures and incentives are misaligned. Risks are often passed to other areas of the value chain instead of being addressed, and players make money from claims rather than from good delivery. High unpredictability and cyclicality have led construction firms to rely on temporary staff and subcontractors, which hampers productivity, limits economies of scale, and reduces output quality and customer satisfaction.
A changing market environment, technological progress, and disruptive new entrants will trigger industry overhaul
The construction industry was already starting to experience an unprecedented rate of disruption before the COVID-19 pandemic. In the coming years, fundamental change is likely to be catalyzed by changes in market characteristics, such as scarcity of skilled labor, persistent cost pressure from infrastructure and affordable housing, stricter regulations on work-site sustainability and safety, and evolving sophistication and needs of customers and owners. Emerging disruptions, including industrialization and new materials, the digitalization of products and processes, and new entrants, will shape future dynamics in the industry (Exhibit A).
(Exhibit A)
Sources of disruption
Rising customer sophistication and total-cost-of-ownership (TCO) pressure. Customers and owners are increasingly sophisticated, and the industry has seen an influx of capital from more savvy customers. From 2014 to 2019, for example, private-equity firms raised more than $388 billion to fund infrastructure projects, including $100 billion in 2019 alone, a 24 percent increase from 2018. Client demands are also evolving regarding performance, TCO, and sustainability: smart buildings, energy and operational efficiency, and flexibility and adaptability of structures will become higher priorities. Expectations are also rising among customers, who want simple, digital interactions as well as more adaptable structures.
The industry is facing persistent cost pressure because of tight public budgets and housing-affordability issues. McKinsey analysis found that $69.4 trillion in global infrastructure investment would be needed through 2035 to support expected GDP growth and that every third global urban household cannot afford a decent place to live at market prices. The economic fallout of the COVID-19 crisis magnifies the cost and affordability issues.
Persistent scarcity of skilled labor and changing logistics equations. Skilled-labor shortages have become a major issue in several markets, and retirements will drain talent. For example, about 41 percent of the current US construction workforce is expected to retire by 2031. The impact the COVID-19 crisis will have on this dynamic in the long term is unclear at the time of writing.
Safety and sustainability regulations and possible standardization of building codes. Requirements for sustainability and work-site safety are increasing. In the wake of COVID-19, new health and safety procedures will be required. The global conversation about climate change puts increasing pressure on the industry to reduce carbon emissions.
At the same time, in some markets, governments are recognizing the need to standardize building codes or provide type certificates and approvals for factory-built products rather than reviews of each site. The process, however, is still slow.
Industrialization. Modularization, off-site production automation, and on-site assembly automation will enable industrialization and an off-site, product-based approach. The shift toward a more controlled environment will be even more valuable as the COVID-19 pandemic further unfolds. The next step in the transition to efficient off-site manufacturing involves integrating automated production systems—essentially making construction more like automotive manufacturing.
New materials. Innovations in traditional basic materials like cement enable a reduction of carbon footprints. Emerging lighter-weight materials, such as light-gauge steel frames and cross-laminated timber, can enable simpler factory production of modules. They will also change the logistics equation and allow longer-haul transport of materials and greater centralization.
Digitalization of products and processes. Digital technologies can enable better collaboration, greater control of the value chain, and a shift toward more data-driven decision making. These innovations will change the way companies approach operations, design, and construction as well as engage with partners. Smart buildings and infrastructure that integrate the Internet of Things (IoT) will increase data availability and enable more efficient operations as well as new business models, such as performance-based and collaborative contracting. Companies can improve efficiency and integrate the design phase with the rest of the value chain by using building-information modeling (BIM) to create a full three-dimensional model (a “digital twin”)—and add further layers like schedule and cost—early in the project rather than finishing design while construction is already underway. This will materially change risks and the sequence of decision making in construction projects and put traditional engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) models into question. Automated parametric design and object libraries will transform engineering. Using digital tools can significantly improve on-site collaboration. And digital channels are spreading to construction, with the potential to transform interactions for buying and selling goods across the value chain. As in other industries, the COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating the integration of digital tools.
New entrants. Start-ups, incumbent players making new bets, and new funding from venture capital and private equity are accelerating disruption of current business models. As the COVID-19-propelled economic crisis unfolds, we also expect an increase in corporate restructuring and M&A activity.
The nine resulting industry shifts
In response, we expect nine shifts to fundamentally change the construction industry. According to our executive survey, more than 75 percent of respondents agree that these shifts are likely to occur, and more than 60 percent believe that they are likely to occur within the next five years. The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic looks set to accelerate them.
Product-based approach. In the future, an increasing share of structures and surrounding services will be delivered and marketed as standardized “products.” This includes developers promoting branded offerings, with standardized but customizable designs that can improve from one product generation to the next, and delivery using modularized elements and standardized components produced in off-site factories. The modules and elements will be shipped and assembled on site. Production will consist of assembly line–like processes in safe, nonhostile environments with a large degree of repeatability.
Specialization. To improve their margins and levels of differentiation, companies will start to specialize in target niches and segments (such as luxury single-family housing, multistory residential buildings, hospitals, or processing plants) in which they can build competitive advantages. And they will specialize in using different materials, subsegments, or methods of construction. The shift toward specialization will also require companies to develop and retain knowledge and capabilities to maintain their competitive advantages. Obviously, players will need to weigh carefully the effectiveness, efficiency, and brand positioning that greater specialization enables against the potential risk or cyclicality benefits of a more diversified portfolio.
Value-chain control and integration with industrial-grade supply chains. Companies will move to own or control important activities along the value chain, such as design and engineering, select-component manufacturing, supply-chain management, and on-site assembly. Companies will be able to achieve this goal through vertical integration or strategic alliances and partnerships by using collaborative contracting and more closely aligned incentives. Digital technology will change the interaction model: BIM models will lead to more decision making early on in the process, distribution will move toward online platforms and advanced logistics management, and end-to-end software platforms will allow companies to better control and integrate value and supply chains. Value-chain control or integration will reduce interface frictions and make innovation more agile.
Consolidation. Growing needs for specialization and investments in innovation—including the use of new materials, digitalization, technology and facilities, and human resources—will require significantly larger scale than is common today. As product-based approaches, with higher standardization and repeatability, further increase the importance of gaining scale, the industry is likely to increasingly see a significant degree of consolidation, both within specific parts of the value chain and across the value chain.
Customer-centricity and branding. With productization—that is, turning development, engineering, or construction services into easy-to-market products or solutions—and specialization in the industry, having a compelling brand that represents an organization’s distinctive attributes and values will take on added importance. As in traditional consumer industries, a strong brand can tie customers more closely to the construction company’s or supplier’s products and help to build and maintain relationships and attract new customers. Similar to brands in other manufacturing industries, such construction brands will encompass, among other aspects, product and service quality, value, timing of delivery, reliability, service offerings, and warranties.
Investment in technology and facilities. Productization implies a need to build off-site factories, which requires investments in plants, manufacturing machinery and equipment (such as robotics to automate manufacturing), and technology. Where modular is not used, the construction site also will likely become more capital intensive, using advanced automation equipment and drones, among other technologies. R&D investment will become more important for specialized or more productized companies, so companies are likely to increase spending to develop new, innovative products and technologies.
Investment in human resources. Innovation, digitalization, value-chain control, technology use, and specialization in end-use segments all increase the importance of developing and retaining in-house expertise, which will compel players to invest more in human resources. The importance of risk management and other current capabilities will decrease and be replaced by an emphasis on others, such as supply-chain management. To build the necessary capabilities, companies will need to further invest in their workforces. This becomes even more important in light of the transition to the future of work. Most incumbents struggle to attract the digital talent they need, and will need to raise excitement about their future business models.
Internationalization. Greater standardization will lower the barriers to operating across geographies. As scale becomes increasingly important to gaining competitive advantages, players will increase their global footprints—both for low-volume projects in high-value segments such as infrastructure, as well as for winning repeatable products that will be in demand across the world. The COVID-19 pandemic might slow down this development.
Sustainability. While sustainability is an important decision factor already, we are only at the very beginning of an increasingly rapid development. Beyond the carbon-abatement discussions, physical climate risks are already growing and require a response. Companies will need to consider the environmental impact when sourcing materials, manufacturing will become more sustainable (for example, using electric machinery), and supply chains will be optimized for sustainability as well as resilience. In addition, the working environments will need to radically change from hostile to nonhostile, making construction safer. Water consumption, dust, noise, and waste are also critical factors.
Today’s project-based construction process looks set to shift radically to a product-based approach (Exhibit B). Instead of building uniquely designed structures on the jobsite, companies will conduct their production at off-site construction facilities. Standardized sub-elements and building blocks will likely be designed in house in R&D-like functions. The elements will be manufactured separately and then combined with customization options to meet bespoke requirements. To produce efficiently and learn through repetition, developers, manufacturers, and contractors will need to specialize in end-user segments. Data-driven business models will emerge. Overall, the process may resemble manufacturing in other industries such as shipbuilding or car manufacturing.
There is reason to believe that a winner-take-most dynamic will emerge, and companies that fail to adjust fast enough risk seeing market shares and margins erode until they eventually go out of business.
Construction is not the first industry to encounter lagging productivity and disruption across the value chain. Lessons can be learned from others that had similar traits and encountered the same challenges that construction faces now. We have analyzed shifts in four of them: shipbuilding, commercial aircraft manufacturing, agriculture, and car manufacturing. Clear patterns of the shifts are evident in all of them, and value shifted to those handling the change best. Innovation in production technology and new work methods kick-started all four of the industries’ journeys. Today, across industries, winners continue to heavily invest in technology, many with focus on digitalization and data-driven products and services.
In commercial aircraft manufacturing, for example, the industry landscape was highly fragmented. Each airplane was built from scratch in a bespoke and project-based-manufacturing setup. Industrialization sparked a shift toward assembly-line manufacturing, which later became highly automated. As a result of the subsequent standardization, the industry entered a phase of consolidation that led to the rise of two major players: Airbus and Boeing. The transformation resulted in a significant shift of value to customers. This transformation journey took roughly 30 years to complete, as commercial aircraft manufacturing faced barriers to change similar to those now confronting construction.
(Exhibit B)
Almost half of incumbent value added is at stake
The transformation of the industry will create both large opportunities and sizable risks as value and profit pools shift in the next 15 years. Over the past years, approximately $11 trillion in value added and $1.5 trillion in profits have been unevenly distributed along the construction value chain and across all asset classes. Looking ahead, up to 45 percent of incumbent value may be at stake in those parts of the market most heavily affected by shifts, such as hotel construction (Exhibit C). Of this total, 20 to 30 percentage points will be kept and redistributed within the ecosystem to enable the shifts to take place. The remaining 15 to 20 percentage points will be value up for grabs as a result of the cost savings and productivity gains generated by the shifts, with the benefits accruing to players or customers (in the form of price reductions or quality increase). If that value is captured fully by players in the ecosystem, total profit pools could nearly double, to 10 percent, from the current 5 percent. Players that move fast and manage to radically outperform their competitors could grab the lion’s share of the $265 billion in new profit pools.
(Exhibit C)
Some players will be more affected than others. For example, software providers are expected to significantly increase their value-added contribution, albeit from a small base of 1 to 2 percent of the value chain. Also, a large share of value is expected to move from construction jobsites to off-site prefabrication facilities. In contrast, general and specialized contractors could face a large decline unless they reposition themselves as companies that go beyond execution alone. Basic design and engineering and materials distribution and logistics may face substantial commoditization and automation risks.
The value at stake could benefit either the players in the ecosystem as profits increase, workers in the form of higher wages, or customers through lower prices and higher quality. Companies that move fast and manage to lower their cost base and increase productivity will have an advantage over the competition. These early movers could translate their productivity gains into profit. In the long term, as other players adjust and competition intensifies, the dynamics in other industries suggest that a large share of the gains will be passed on to customers.
Our baseline scenario estimates that 10 to 12 percent of construction activities will move along shifts outlined in this report by 2035, but change will vary significantly by asset class because of different starting points and abilities to transform. In real estate, for example, we expect that by 2035 an additional 15 percent of new building projects could be completed through a redesigned value chain. This higher-than-average number is partly the result of the potential for standardization in single- and multifamily residential, hotels, offices, and hospitals. For infrastructure, approximately 7 percent of additional new building volume could be delivered in a transformed way—with bridges, airports, and railways, for example, having particular potential. Industrial construction could see an additional penetration of about 5 percent, as several of its subsegments have already made significant progress in the past.
Transformation will take time, but the COVID-19 crisis will accelerate change
The full transformation of the construction industry could take decades, but the process has already begun. Our survey shows that industry leaders largely agree that the shifts outlined in this report are likely to occur at scale within the next five to ten years, and that the COVID-19 crisis will accelerate shifts.
Our executive survey of 400 decision makers in November and December 2019 found that the attitudes of executives have evolved materially since three to five years ago (see sidebar “About the executive survey” in chapter 1 for more details on the survey). In all, 90 percent of the respondents strongly believe that the industry needs to change and that this sentiment has grown in the past ten years. Eighty percent also believe that the construction industry will look radically different 20 years from now.
Beyond our analysis and the overwhelming beliefs of the surveyed executives, we see signs today that the industry had already started to change before the COVID-19 crisis began. For instance, adoption of product-based approaches is increasing. In North America, the permanent modular-construction market share of new real-estate construction projects grew by approximately 51 percent from 2015 to 2018, and revenues for the segment grew (from a small base of $2 billion) by a factor of 2.4 over the same period. Also, emerging players as well as incumbents are already seeking to control a larger part of the value chain; Katerra, for instance, used new technology to control the value chain, including design and engineering and off-site manufacturing. Indicators suggest the construction industry is increasing its emphasis on R&D, and companies that have invested in construction technology and facilities are gaining traction. Global R&D spending by the top 2,500 construction companies grew by 77 percent from 2013 to 2017.
The COVID-19 crisis looks set to accelerate change (Exhibit D). We conducted an additional survey in early May 2020 to understand the potential implications of the crisis on the disruptions and shifts outlined in the report. Respondents comprised 100 decision makers out of the same sample that responded to our first survey. Nearly two-thirds of respondents believe that the COVID-19 crisis will accelerate industry transformation, and half have already raised investment in line with the shifts. Investments in digitalization and supply-chain control are most pronounced, while respondents believe the crisis will slow down internationalization and the rise of new entrants—giving incumbents a rare opportunity to step in and drive change.
(Exhibit D)
All players must prepare now for a fundamentally different next normal
Our research shows that leaders leave laggards behind in times of crisis. Those that go beyond managing their survival to take fast, bold, strategic action tend to emerge as the winners. During past economic cycles, companies that managed to move quickly to improve their productivity (for example, reducing their cost of goods sold through operational efficiency), divest earlier and are more acquisitive during the recovery. They cleaned up their balance sheets ahead of a downturn and outperformed competition in both revenues and earnings before interest, depreciation, taxes, and amortization (EBITDA).
Players in the ecosystem will need to develop strategies to deal with the disruption ahead. Our survey respondents identified four types of players set to face the largest long-term decline: design and engineering firms, materials distributors, general contractors, and specialist contractors. Furthermore, respondents believe that general contractors will be required to move first, as they could experience commoditization and a declining share of value.
In the face of this transformation, companies all along the value chain need to review where they want to play
Which asset classes, segments, geographies, and value-chain steps. They will need to assess the impact of each of the disruptions and the nine shifts, decide how they want to act on them, and define new-business models and operating models in line with those decisions. This process is critical whether they aim to defend their core business and adjust to the new environment or fundamentally reinvent themselves and attack. For success, it will be critical for companies to invest in a set of enablers, such as agile organizations. Finally, companies can choose how to implement the new strategy and transformation, whether it’s trying to evolve incumbent operations to work within the new setup, starting up new divisions or arm’s-length operations, or applying targeted M&A.
In the materials-distribution and logistics segment, for instance, off-site manufacturing facilities will shift demand for shipments to factory hubs, the main logistics nodes, which will increase customer expectations for just-in-time delivery. The segment will be further reshaped by online and direct sales channels (including new competition from online-distribution behemoths), rising customer expectations, and increased use of technologies such as advanced analytics or automated warehouses. A shift in procurement activity, from small specialized trades firms to larger contractors, will affect companies’ bargaining power, and internationalization will enable companies to source more from low-cost countries.
In response, companies could try to defend their core by, for instance, focusing on the refurbishment market, becoming leaner, and undertaking category reviews. They could adjust to the changing environment by, for example, strengthening customer relationships, offering new business solutions to avoid disintermediation, consolidating to gain scale, and developing industrial-grade supply-chain capabilities. Reinvention would entail becoming the logistics hub of the future construction landscape. Strategies could include partnering closely with off-site manufacturers and materials suppliers to optimize logistics and inventory according to their needs, helping with international sourcing, or offering credit financing.
Companies that familiarize themselves with the next normal and move quickly will be best positioned to both create value and maintain their competitive edge.
Organizations that are adjacent to the construction ecosystem should look to facilitate—and benefit from—the coming changes. Investors are well advised to use foresight to anticipate the respective shifts and generate above-market returns. Insurance companies are already factoring use of modern methods of construction into their terms. Policy makers should help the industry become more productive and thereby attain better housing and infrastructure for citizens. And building owners stand to benefit from better structures at lower costs if they play their part in making the shifts happen.
Construction is already in the perfect storm. Industrialization, globalization, and digitalization have been key drivers of change in all industries. While this change happened in sequential waves—for example, in auto industrialization in the 1970s and 1980s, globalization in the 1990s and 2000s, and digitalization in the 2010s and ongoing—all of these drivers are hitting construction simultaneously. It is a daunting task and will require bold and agile moves to maneuver, but the size of the prize is enormous.
(Source: McKinsey & Company website)
